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Will Russia invade Ukraine?

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the G20 leaders summit via video link in Moscow, Russia October 30, 2021. Sputnik/Evgeniy Paulin/Kremlin via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.

With the National Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) sending reinforcements and US troops already being deployed for a war-like situation, it is likely certain that Russia may invade Ukraine anytime soon.

Although US president Joe Biden has made up his mind to impose economic sanctions personally, which target Vladimir Putin if at all he orders an attack on Ukraine. At the same time, Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister has also encouraged European allies to keep sanctions ready in case Russia invades Ukraine.

At present, NATO has put forth its forces on standby and have also reinforced Eastern Europe with ships and fighter jets. Meanwhile, the US department of defense in Washington is also ready with their 8,500 troops. These American troops are put on high alert and are waiting for the orders to get deployed in case of an invasion.

But will Russia do so? And is Putin actually in favour of such an invasion?

Recent studies by a former US ambassador to Ukraine believes that Putin might be afraid to be in favor of an attack on Ukraine. This is because many factors affect this decision, amongst which the first and foremost will be the large majority of Ukrainians.
The majority of Ukrainians who hate the Kremlin will surely fight back. And although the military of Moscow is stronger, it will be way tough for Russia to hold on to cities it has seized in the long run.
Then comes the geopolitical position. Here, the whole position of Russia’s overall geopolitical image would be at risk if it invades the Eastern European Country.

The American angle:
Yes, the USA is ready with its troops but this same energy did not suffice the last time Russia invaded Ukraine.
Senior Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, John Herbst said that the US allies need to work hard against Russia, as the planning did not work last time when Moscow invaded Georgia and Crimea. He also added that the current planning of the USA is reasonable but is not at all sufficient. “It needs to be stronger and faster, and we need to do it in conjunction with our allies,” Herbst said.
This puts us into another situation where Herbst believes that if at all Putin feels that Biden’s response is fake or a bluff, he will deploy Russian troops in large numbers to Ukraine. And these numbers may even exceed those which are currently in Donbas and in Crimea.

For now it’s clear that Putin sees a military conflict, which is a threat to him. So other future discernment would be wrong.

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